Predicted Next Dividend Ex-Date For OHI: October 30th. I never buy until I consult with Brian! I read a few others today in SA today and you lay out the issues the best. These payout ratio percentages will further improve once the Orianna portfolio returns to paying rent over the next six months, restoring much of Omega Healthcare’s cushion to continue paying a safe dividend, which it has increased for 21 consecutive quarters (including a … short-term and fixable) rather than indicative of overall industry conditions deteriorating.OHI has become a tough investment case with decreasing visibility. The company is facing political uncertainty, as the government seems determined to reduce its … Hard to say what will happen, but the medium-term outlook is hazy.Patients discharged from hospitals are sent to SNFs when they still require care or rehab before they can be sent home. Combined with very long-term and staggered contracts, this gives Omega Healthcare a profitable and dependable source of recurring cash flow from which to fund its steadily growing payout.“The delay means the bill, if it does garner enough support, would likely undergo major changes. That could include an expansion of health spending accounts, more funding for opioid-addiction treatment, and more robust federal funding for Medicaid enrollees who are disabled or elderly, according to people familiar with some of the negotiations today and objections of Republican senators. We view these as long-term headwinds that stronger operators should be able to manage given they are fairly well-telegraphed.”Source: Omega Healthcare Investor PresentationAt today’s price, investors have potential to achieve long-term annual total returns in excess of 10% (7.4% yield + 5% annual growth), assuming the company is not materially affected by regulatory changes (especially around reimbursement rates) and SNFs continue to capture a similar proportion of the aging senior population.While federal policy is still characterized by a healthy dose of uncertainty today, we believe new legislation will likely be relatively more incremental, phased in over a long period of time, and will not result in bankruptcies like those that occurred over 15 years ago.This kind of strong, long-term consistency is thanks to two protective factors. That means that should 10-year Treasury yields rise by about 2%, as the Federal Reserve is projecting through the end of 2019, then Omega Healthcare’s dividend yield might rise to as high as 10%.This means that management is being good stewards of investor capital, only taking on new debt or selling new shares if they have a profitable investment opportunity that will ultimately grow long-term shareholder value.That’s why it’s been raising the dividend each quarter by just a penny, which, assuming the trend continues, would mean that 10 years from now it would be paying an annual dividend of $4.12 per share.
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